There is a battle of bears vs. bulls in crypto land this weekend, and the prize is $9k. Bulls want to charge past it; the bears do not. It is TENSE!
Let’s keep it short as “the price of Bitcoin,” while interesting, and at times rather important, is only one of many aspects of crypto.
The $9k-ish chart (specifically $9 – $9.4k) is important to hold for a range of reasons, including:
- There is a nasty longer-term chart pattern is forming and ideally needs to be staved off.
- There is a resistance level at $9k-ish that could ideally work as support if we get past it (for now and until if and when we fall well below $8k, $8k-ish has the equal opposite effect; $8k generally works as a support, but could become resistance if it is breached).
- There is money is waiting on the sidelines to jump in or back in if BTC can make the push, etc (and thus if BTC can regain a bullish path, there is likely to be a lot more organic buying power).
If the bulls can lift Bitcoin up past $9k and stop bouncing Bitcoin off $9k over and over (this has been the case lately), it gives us another shot to make 2018 the year of the crypto.
If the push fails, and we go hard in the other direction (not low $8ks, but more of a retest of $6k after panic selling), then it isn’t necessarily the end, but the path forward gets a lot more difficult to traverse.
Thus, for these reasons and more complex ones, the battle for $9k in the $8k range has been intense and will likely continue to be for however long we find ourselves here.
I’m not sure any low price is going to kill interest in crypto, but there is probably only so long one can hold a golden goose underwater before it stops laying golden eggs for a while.
That said though; there is no crypto deity. There is no law that says thine bears must not kill the Bitcoin; there is only the price action on the exchanges (which tends to manifest in waves).
Whatever happens, expect a volatile weekend and expect some serious gains or losses depending on where you place your bets. We’ve seen $500 – $1,000 movements in under an hour more than once this week (each run up or dump coming with the same sort of force that pushed BTC from $10k to $20k).
So that is what is happening. Here is a general sense of what one might do in response; it’s not investment advice, but more like general conservative tactics commonly employed in volatile markets like crypto. Do your research and make your own choices.
- A smart and conservative action plan, if you don’t have crypto, is to either wait to see what happens or to build an average position slowly over time (so in the moment volatility doesn’t have as big of an effect).
- Meanwhile, if you are holding crypto, it’s really a matter of personal taste. Do you hold out in hopes that crypto generally does well over time? For the answer to be yes, you need to be a believer in crypto and be comfortable holding it for as long as it takes. If you are just speculating and your focus is on cash, then make sure not to gamble more than you can afford to lose. Here HOLDers must be especially careful, as if this isn’t a setup for moving down… it is the exact sort of market which “shakes out weak hands.
Either way, be sensible and try to set yourself up for any possible outcome (like the one where the bulls sadly lose, and you still have money to pay your taxes and buy more crypto later).
When Bitcoin was rising from $3k to $10k the “should I buy crypto” question was easy to answer. After this weekend, it may be easy to answer again. However, these are some uncertain, exciting, and scary times.
I look at the crypto market and don’t see positive or negative, just is what it is.
With that all covered, let us end by saying: May the best animal win and may their claws and hooves guide them to glory. Praise be onto Satoshi, for his Bitcoin is good (the proof being, at least part, that the war is going on over his kingdom).
Ps. If Bitcoin ends up going up, then it’ll either cause an alt boom out of the gate, or they will lag and then catch up. Either way, there is a good chance that we will see big things. So keep an eye on alts, because they can move quickly. Meanwhile, if Bitcoin ends up going down, it almost certainly will drag everything down for as long as it goes down itself. If it goes that way, check out TradingView to try to get an idea of Bitcoin’s support levels for where you might see all cryptos bounce. Remember, Bitcoin can be fun, but make sure to be safe so you can stay around to have more fun later!