One way to try to predict when the next alt season will come is to look at the Bitcoin Dominance chart. Specifically a downtrend in the dominance chart means alt season is on.
Here is one example of doing such a thing, see A Strategy Guide For Trading Altcoins With Bitcoin Dominance.
That guide is useful, but I think the most useful thing is just generally being aware of a few points:
- One could argue TA doesn’t work on the dominance chart, or one could argue it works on any chart. Let’s go with the theory that it is useful here.
- Which indicators you use, or more broadly TA tactics from trendlines to patterns to whatever you use, is up to you. Use what works for you, and use what is useful for you (a strategy is only as good as your implementation of it).
- With the above said, you can see in my example that fib levels and guppy moving averages have worked well enough. We can treat the fibs as support and resistance levels and the moving averages as confirmation of the trend.
- The bottom line, and most important rule is this, when Bitcoin dominance is in a downtrend, alt season is on, and when Bitcoin Dominance is in an uptrend, alt season is cancelled.