Fundstrat’s Tom Lee Revises BTC Projection From $25k to $20k

Tom Lee Says $20k – $25k For 2018; Arthur Hayes Says $50k

Fundstrat’s Tom Lee has revised his BTC projection for 2018 from $25k to $20k. His projection is based on the idea that BTC will trade for 2.5x its mining cost.^[1]

NOTE: In terms of recent calls, Lee was right about the April tax rally, but wrong about the CoinDesk Consensus rally. So from that perspective he is 50/50.

Here is Lee’s logic in my own words (you can confirm this via the videos below and in the CNBC article in the citations):

If we consider the mining cost to be $7,000 today (for a fully loaded rig, on average with energy costs considered), and we assume that mining costs will reach $9,000 by the end of the year, and then we consider that historically BTC has traded for 2.5x its mining cost, then we can assume a end of the year value of between $20k – $25k for Bitcoin… However, the market has been a little bearish, so $20k seems more likely (from a bullish perspective). NOTE: He later clarified that his projection is “over $20k” (see the video below for his explanation).

This may seem like an overly bullish projection, but if you look at the history of crypto prices you can clearly see a precedent for big ups and downs.

Meanwhile, if you think Lee is Bullish, just consider Bitmex CEO Arthur Hayes’ $50k by the end of 2018 projection (see the next video).

The bulls don’t have to be right, and we could always see lower lows first, but if you look at the history of Bitcoin, and you consider factors like mining costs, there are a few reasons to not totally dismiss the bulls here.

This isn’t just McAfee calling $100k over a glass of Whiskey, these are some legit analysts and industry insiders making bold and bullish, but perhaps reasonable predictions.

1. Wall Street’s Tom Lee cuts his year-end bitcoin price target by about 20%. CNBC.com.