Overly bullish predictions that get people trapped buying high aren’t cool, so don’t take this article as such. That said, I do want to muse on a possible world where ETH does moving forward what BTC did from 2013 – 2017.
Phrased as a question:
What if ETH does from 2017 to a future date what BTC did from 2013 – 2017? So far their charts look eerily similar.
- After going from a few cents to $400 in the course of a few years leading up to 2017, ETH went from about $1,400 at a high to $150-ish at a low and the settled around $200 between 2017 – 2018 (settled as of this moment, I don’t know what happens next).
- It is the same story for BTC. After going from a few cents to $125 from 2010 – 2013, BTC went from about $1,200 at a high to $150-ish at a low and settled around $200 between 2013 – 2015 (I do know what happens because this happened in the past).
Look at the overlay chart above, the lighter candles are BTC and the darker ones are ETH. Now look at the chart below, that one is clearly labeled and tells the same story.
That story being, ETH is making a very similar pattern to BTC’s old chart, even to the extent that it is hitting some similar price points from its high into its correction phase.
Now with the above said, there are some solid counterpoints to this style of thinking.
One is that expecting history to repeat exactly is probably not the most realistic expectation. There are already some major differences between 2015 and 2018 (for example, different dollar values, different news items, and different levels of adoption).
Second, BTC and ETH don’t have the same supply (ETH has a larger supply and doesn’t have the hard cap BTC has).
Also, just in general, going up 100x is absurd… but of course, we’ve all seen stocks and cryptos do it, and let’s not forget BTC went up over 100x from the low of the chart I’m showing above ($150 to $20,000 is over 130x)… but still, absurd.
Also, let’s be honest, both ETH and BTC were both already up more than 100x by the time they hit $150 (as both traded under a quarter at some point in their lives), and this itself was absurd.
And that is the thing. While 100x increase seems absurd to say out loud, in reality it happens in practice in both equities and cryptos.
The reality is, how things look depend on how you frame them.
Let’s look at the fractal log projection below, that pattern looks reasonable if you don’t look over at the numbers on the right side of the chart. And that pattern takes us to $20k and beyond over the course of years.
Point being, although you have to be a little nuts to be betting on $20k ETH unless you have spare capital and a risk tolerance, there are a few simple rational arguments that can be made for a possible world in which ETH goes to the moon and beyond.
It is crazy in general, but it isn’t really that crazy from some perspectives given enough time.
The lesson here isn’t “be bullish (short or long term),” the lesson is “there is no lesson, this is just a what if.”
The what if being, “what if ETH 2018 is self similar to BTC 2015?” That has some crazy implications. Heck, even if we drop down to $50 and pop back up to $5k, or $100 up to $10k, the gist of what I’m saying still holds.
Interesting to think about, but again, you have to be a little nuts to bank on it. If you are investing in ETH, it should be with risks in mind and it should be based on the asset, not on some crazy pipe dream of future riches fed to you buy some guy on the internet.
Let’s be honest there is also a possible world where ETH goes back to fifty cents, one where it is $200 in 5 years, one where it drops down 50%+ and finds stability there, etc.
That said, risks aside, I am not super interested in playing “what if ETH drops or stops moving” in this article, I more interested in how BTC’s crash of 2013 – 2015 compares with ETH’s crash of 2018 and what that might mean in the best of all possible worlds. And that is what we just did, discussed that. Anyway, back to reality where we are in a bear market!