It is easy to be bearish when the price has been going down for months on end. Just like it is easy to be bullish when the price only goes up. And it is the case that people bet in the direction of price, and in crypto, on leverage especially.
Still, nothing can literally just go up forever, and instead, every trend has to see a reversal at some point. It is never easy to time a top or bottom, but they do happen, typically when many traders are all leveraged and betting in the same direction at the same level as buyers or sellers run out of steam. At some point, price reverts. Likewise, and as it has been recently, staying at any range too long is going to drain volume, and price is likely to pick a direction.
The price has been going sideways and grinding down. Will the next direction be up?… or is this simply one last chance to open shorts before we go to $20k?
Although on-chain and technical indicators are mixed to bearish right now, contrarian indicators, like an increasing number of shorts and simply an average of historic drawdowns in terms of % drop and time before a rally attempt, suggest a relief rally (although perhaps not a continuation of the previous uptrend to new highs).
There is no way to know exactly what will happen of course, but once again holding such a critical support level, and knowing some mega bullish events are on the horizon, after such a brutal two months, does leave room for cautious optimism. If things do go in an optimistic direction, historically one may expect not just a Bitcoin run, but ETH (especially given the coming upgrade), Doge, DeFi, and everything else that has gotten crushed recently.
What do you think? State your case in the comments.