Keep an Eye on December and April Bottoms of Altcoins

Many altcoins are approaching their December and April bottoms in terms of BTC prices. With Bitcoin in an uptrend, those levels could act as pivot points and spark some alt runs.

Although not every coin is approaching those lows, a large number of altcoins are all approaching levels seen in December and/or April. Meanwhile, Bitcoin is on a bit of a run due to excitement over a possible ETF.

NOTE: To get a sense of what I mean look at LTC, BCH, and ARK for setups and ADT to see what a run from the December bottoms looks like (to see this you can use blockfolio, or CoinMarketCap, or TradingView; just make sure to look at BTC values and not dollar values). Please note these examples aren’t “coins you should or shouldn’t buy” they are simply examples of the set up I’m talking about. The reality is many coins have this set up.

That combination of factors could create a bit of a perfect storm where Bitcoin running and alts remaining stagnant for the start of its run result in a good chunk of the alt market hitting strong support levels in terms of BTC prices in unison. This could cause all alts to rise at once, or it could start triggering massive runs like popcorn.

We saw events like this occur in December 2017 – January 2018 after Bitcoin started its bull run in anticipation of Bitcoin futures (with alts heating up when Bitcoin began to stagnate).

In that time we first saw events play out like this:

  1. Bitcoin and only Bitcoin ran while alts stagnated.
  2. Then we saw alts catch up a bit.
  3. Then we would see random alts here and there make epic gains.
  4. Then the gains started coming more rapidly for alts while Bitcoin stagnated.
  5. By the end of that whole deal many coins had increased by more than 1,000%.

The best move one could make in that time was to be in Bitcoin all the way up until alts hit their lows in December and then to have shifted into alts (you had a very short window of opportunity and it differed by coin).

For those who couldn’t make those perfect moves, a good backup plan that was simpler to execute was to be in BTC and then to gradually average BTC into alts. Doing this from October to December wasn’t ideal at first, but the end result with epic gains. Doing this from November to December was also pretty nice. Doing this just during December was almost as good as timing the bottom.

This environment might not be a repeat of late 2017 early 2018, but if it is, those who get anywhere close to timing the bottom of the alt market are likely to see a big pay day.

Here one has to understand what we are talking about is riding Bitcoin up (making profit) and then swapping to alts and ridding them up (even more profit) then taking gains to BTC and having even more Bitcoin than you started with… at which point one can take massive profits in dollars (or can take some profits in dollars and add to their collection of cryptos; I tend to think doing a mix is the best bet due to the insane volatility of the market).

Or um… that is the ideal.

The reality is anyone attempting that feat is likely to take some serious hits, mistime a few things, and hold some bags. Still, even those who get a small part of that right will generally be in a good place.

This is a high stakes game with a very real risk of getting “rekt” (AKA losing money), but if you want to play, this is probably one of the better setups of 2018.

Right now we are at a point where coins have a lot of room to go up in BTC prices before they even come close to their all time highs on one hand and are very close to recent bottoms on the other hand.

Sure, the setup is there for the destruction of the alt market and for Bitcoin running solo – period.

However, the setup is also there for another season of the alts.

Those who got into crypto in December – January were likely attracted by the hype and big gains. However, the reality is, the biggest gains were realized by those who bought altcoins in early December as they plummeted in BTC value during Bitcoin’s massive late 2017 run.

To get alts one must trade in BTC or ETH. ETH lost value against BTC too. That means to get alts one must trade out of BTC. Getting the timing right isn’t easy, and that is only one of many risks. Still though, as those December and April bottoms come in, it might be worth trying to catch some falling knives.

NOTE: The minor alts may offer the best rewards and have some of the best setups for crazy recoveries (due to them being weaker in general for 2018 and thus losing more value), but the top alts (say top 20 by market cap) are generally safer bets than the ones further down the list. So if you want to take a small risk, but don’t want to gamble like crazy, stick toward the top of the list.

Author: Thomas DeMichele

Thomas DeMichele has been working in the cryptocurrency information space since 2015 when was created. He has contributed to MakerDAO, Alpha Bot (the number one crypto bot on Discord),...

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