Some may consider those who held Bitcoin since 2010 “lucky.” I would argue that they are lucky in some ways, but in most of what they went through luck isn’t a factor.
What I mean is this; to HODL BTC from 2010 forward you had to:
- Figure out how to obtain it and store it safely (that meant mining or using an ultra rickety exchange).
- Sit through a few crashes that make 2014 and 2018 look like child’s play.
- Resist the temptation to sell the top of each bubble (and listen to the “I told you so” comments and ignore those who bragged about their “sick gains” all the way down).
- Not panic sell each time there was FUD.
Simply put, they were lucky in that they found out about it early and it ended up doing well. However, most of the other things that happened had very little to do with luck.
To HODL from the start you had to watch BTC go from a penny, to ten cents, to $30, to $20, etc. You had to hear Jamie Dimon insult you over and over. You had to live though countless China FUDs and a MtGox. You had to listen to people online brag about how they sold and shorted. You had to watch the crypto craze of 2016 – 2018 and not flinch.
You had years on end of mostly drama and downtrends, and then when you did see a bull run it was full of temptations to sell.
You went through a ton to get to this point with 2010 Bitcoins, and while it was “lucky” that you got it early and that it ended up doing well, most of it was an uncanny level of guts and dedication.
How many among us would have not sold already or would not sell now? I suspect it is only slightly more than who are actually holding 2010 Bitcoins (as there are some who would have held, but didn’t know about it back then).
Those who bought higher than it is right now can’t feel great this week, and it could get worse (sorry, it is true though), but if you do get through this, and you are “lucky” enough to see crypto rise again some day, there will have been very little luck involved.
Point being, the few who held through anything are lucky in a few ways, but mostly they are just brave to the point of probably deserving every penny of value accumulated.
People say “I wish I bought Bitcoin at X price or Y date”… but like, actions speak louder than words. If Bitcoin was clearly always going up and raining joy and money down on us, we would have all bought and held since day 1. The reality is, most don’t have what it would take to HODL from 2010 until now. No one wants to see 90%+ losses or buy after 90%+ losses, so most sell, don’t buy, or generally don’t HODL. That is logical, but maybe worth stating.
Now apply all that to the person who bought the top of a previous bubble, like BTC at $32 in 2011 or Amazon for $112 in 1999. How lucky / unlucky were they? Speculative investments in great tech can be crazy things, but getting it right takes more than luck.
TIP: The above generally applies to alt coins as well… however one should note that those don’t always come back. That is partly unlucky, but again it is also largely… a result of individual choices and actions. 🙂 The moral, consider having at least some BTC if you are going to HODL long term.
NOTE: Bitcoin came out in 2009. At first you could only mine it, then you could trade it starting in 2010. So that is why I say “2010” above. That said, it was next to impossible to get in until 2011 via an exchange. Thus, many early adopters got their first taste of BTC when it went from $0.68 cents, to $33, to $2.