The SEC must approve or deny two Proshares Bitcoin ETFs this week. The deadline is Thursday the 23rd, they cannot extend the decision. This isn’t great timing considering the price of Bitcoin, recent ETF drama, and the SEC’s history of denials…. or is it?!
What I mean is this:
- The SEC cannot extend the deadline for the Proshares ETF any longer, the decision will happen between now and Thursday.
- The SEC has historically denied every crypto ETF (although to be fair they did previously give the thumbs up to GBTC and Bitcoin futures).
- The market just rallied and panicked over ETF rumors last month. So ETF emotions are high in the market right now (even if Bakkt should be a bigger deal, the market isn’t always purely rational).
- Crypto prices are sitting at some dangerous lows (where the next support levels are prices not seen since mid-2017), yet BTCUSDSHORTS is at its 2018 high and most cryptos are oversold.
All together that to me says a decision is likely to push the market one way or another, however the decision probably has a higher probability of being a denial given history so far, which means there is a possible world in which things get ugly within the next day or two if the market overreacts.
All that said, nothing has to happen any specific way. We could see an approval and stagnation, we could see a denial and a rally anyway, etc.
No way to know, but the decision is coming none-the-less.
TIP: This is not the SolidX ETF everyone got manic over last month, this is the Proshares. Decisions on SolidxX, Direxion, and more are all coming up.