The first signs of alt season (when altcoins go up against Bitcoin for a period of time) are occurring here on August 17th, 2018. That said, it’s far too early to declare it the season of the alts.
UPDATE Jan 2019: We got a nice little run right after this, so the insight wasn’t wrong. However, that run eventually failed and we dropped from the $6ks to $3ks BTC a few months later. The reality is though, the logic on this page applies to any timeframe in which we see alts heating up and Bitcoin either going up or holding steady. I’ve seen many alts “moon” between the time I wrote this article and now (Jan 22nd, 2019)… and honestly, the current alt market looks pretty darn good despite BTC’s reluctance to break out of the $3ks (kind of like how it as in the $6ks).
Here are some arguments for why another alt season might come sooner rather than later:
- Bitcoin has been doing a good job resisting the $5ks. For alts to moon, Bitcoin must stay strong.
- Ethereum has shown strength since hitting its 2018 bottom. Ethereum is the king alt, for alts to moon Ethereum must stay strong.
- Alts are down between 75% – 95% (even after some 5% – 30% runs over the last few days). Sure, there is a ton more room to go down, but also finally a ton of room to go up in terms of USD, BTC, and technicals. Alts had become very oversold technically speaking and many hit or blew past the prices they traded at in 2017. Nothing is ever due, but if it was, some nice alt runs would be.
Here are some argument against the season of the alts:
- 2018 has been bearish overall, with alts so oversold they could just be rebounding a bit before continuing a bear trend.
- Often Bitcoin recovers first and alts follow. We haven’t seen a Bitcoin recovery, even if we might be seeing a 2018 bottom forming.
- Many alts are still up a lot from early 2017, there is a lot more room to go down.
In all it is simply too early to tell if this strength in Ethereum, Ripple, and the range of alts is the first signs of spring… or if it is just a dead cat bouncing down the frozen hills of crypto winter.
Might be the season of the alts, yah, but crypto can change on a dime. Need to see some continued runs throughout the upcoming weeks to even consider being excited 🙂