BTC has a bullish setup, that if not looked at in context of the long bear market, is pretty attractive. Is the new JPMorgan Coin bullish enough news to push it over the edge?

Look at the chart I drew above, I sort of outlined a few bullish patterns and potential cases MS paint style.

  • I drew a rough Adam and Eve double bottom.
  • I showed the horizontal resistance around $4k that we ideally want to break above and turn into support.
  • I showed that if we don’t break that resistance, or only do a little, we could print an inverse head and shoulders (or simply a quick cup and handle).
  • I showed that BTC just poked its head above a confluence of moving average resistance.
  • I showed that if we can break above $4.2k there isn’t much resistance in the way until we get about to that 200 day EMA in blue.
  • And from this we should know that if that 200 day is breached with conviction, then hide your bear cubs because we could be taking a rocket up to levels we haven’t seen since we tried to break out of the $6ks.

Now what I didn’t note is that most alt charts actually look way better than this, for example LTC/BTC already smashed through its 200 day ema. What happens when that happens, well XRP’s chart gives us a clue. XRP doubled after smashing its 200 day, would be cool if BTC could pull that one off!

Now that said, let’s be real and curb some of that enthusiasm. Consider these statements:

  • We are in the midst of a long and crushing bear market. Even if $3k ends up being the bottom, it could take a few attempts to really break out.
  • In 2015 it took a few attempts to break out.
  • In bear markets traders tend to sell resistance. We are currently at some logical resistance.

Ultimately here then this is about looking at the potential setup cautiously. What you do after you understand the setup is up to you. As a trader, your move depends on time frames, as an investor, your move depends on your risk tolerance. So literally the most bearish or bullish setup only presents a clear move to a trader / investor who knows themselves.

We can all see the same setup, but what that means to you is on you. What we can ask out loud though is, “will good news and great setups be enough to get us over this hump?” Good question.

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What do you think?

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