Dogecoin rallied last week almost touching BTC high from January 2017. No other top crypto has done that yet. This is likely a response to the upcoming Dogethereum. But one has to wonder if it Doge isn’t acting as a canary in an altcoin gold mine.
Historically, since 2014, Doge has tended to rally at the start and end of new crypto cycles, or if not, its rallies tended to coincide with significant points in the market (see Doge vs. Market cap for example; tip you have to look at this on a log scale or move the slider over to suss out 2017 or you won’t be able to see the data well).
Historically, Doge often rallies early in a new market cycle, or it rallies late in an existing market cycle. When it rallies late I almost always take it as an indicator that the top could be in. However, when it rallies early, I tend to think/hope/wonder-if it means the opposite.
To be fair, Doge didn’t rally out of nowhere this time, it rallied “because Dogethereum” (much smart contracts and free Dogethereum for Doge holders), but it did none the less rally near a point which could reasonably be early in a new crypto market cycle. Part of what backs up this theory is that most other coins rallied with it, including many low/cost high volume altcoins. April aside, that hasn’t happened since we were in a bull market back in January and earlier.
When Doge rallied in Feb of 2014, it was essentially the end of the 2013 – 2014 run, when it rallied in sept 2014 it marked a point at which things were about to get a lot worse for crypto, in June 2015 it didn’t mean much (the bottom was in and the market was sideways), when it rallied in Oct of 2015 though…. that marked the start of a 2 year long bull run! Then when it rallied in the summer of 2017 it marked the start of the biggest and most epic altcoin rally since 2013 – 2014. Then finally we get 2018. The first 2018 rally in January marked the end of the 2017 – 2018 bubble (it was one of the last coins to “moon”). Then in 2018 it rallied two more times, once in April when Bitcoin did and once in a very minor way in July when Bitcoin did.
Is this Doge moon acting as a canary in a shhcoin goldmine? Or, is this just excitement over Dogethereum and non-meme coins riding Doge’s coattails? It is crypto, so there is no way to know. That said, I’ll continue to keep a close eye on the market when Doge rallies due to the correlation of its chart and the crypto market as a whole.
When people are willing to throw countless millions at Dogecoin, something is up, we just need to figure out what that something is.
TIP: Other coins to look at for trend changes in the market as a whole are BTC, ETH, and XRP. If you see any of those coins rally it’ll tend to mean “something.”